I think looking at FCS coaches is still a mixed bag. Recall that UTEP did hire Scott Stoker from SHSU as DC at one point. When he was DC at Sam he was able to routinely shut down FCS offenses; that was not really the case when he moved to UTEP.
On the offensive side, SHSU had an OC get hired by Mississippi at one point. While the guy was at Sam, the Kats had one of the top offenses in the FCS. He was a dud at Ole Miss.
Willie Fritz moved form SHSU to Georgia Southern when they moved up to FBS and did well, then got hired away by Tulane and he has had decent success there (i.e., bowl games). Fritz was replaced by KC Keeler (who won a national championship while at Delaware and coached Joe Flacco), he has done very well at Sam but I have never gotten the impression he is looking to move up.
It also seems to me that many of the successful FCS coaches enjoy working at that level and are not always obvious candidates to move up to FBS. North Dakota State has been insanely dominant over the last 10 years, but their HCs have not set the world on fire when they have left.
In an ideal world, an OC from a Power Five school would be great for UTEP, but the current reality is UTEP is (literally) a recruiting desert and I am not certain UTEP can ever again recruit top FB talent. Good coaching can only take us so far. On this, I am definitely willing to be proven wrong.
lieb