Author Topic: C-USA Football Predictions  (Read 1340 times)

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kyyote

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C-USA Football Predictions
« on: July 21, 2022, 07:30:51 PM »
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  • From Athlon Sports
    Conference USA is a league in transition going into the 2022 college football season. With Marshall, Old Dominion and Southern Miss moving to the Sun Belt, C-USA is an 11-team league this fall and will no longer have the East/West Division alignment. The top two teams will play in the conference title game this December, and there's no debate about which teams are projected atop the league this fall. UAB and UTSA are the heavy favorites to finish in the top two spots in '22, with the Blazers getting a slight nod over the Roadrunners for No. 1. WKU headlines the next tier of contenders, followed by UTEP and then a group of teams ? FAU, North Texas, Charlotte and Middle Tennessee ? clustered together. Louisiana Tech, Rice and FIU are the projected teams at the bottom of C-USA for '22.

    College Football News

    It?s a new world for Conference USA with the loss of Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss over to the Sun Belt. There are still plenty of good teams still around, but the league is hanging on through the expansion process.

    Can 2021?s star teams keep it all going? UTSA and WKU won?t be quite as good, UAB should be strong, and UTEP might just keep on stunning.

    If Florida Atlantic can rise up after a down season, and if North Texas and Middle Tennessee can be bowl-worthy again, it should be a fun run.

    The rankings are based on how good the teams should be and not the final projected records. Keeping in mind that this all could/might/will change when we make the final calls in August ?

    1
    UAB Blazers
    2
    Florida Atlantic Owls
    3
    WKU Hilltoppers
    4
    Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
    5
    UTSA Roadrunners
    6
    Charlotte 49ers
    7
    Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
    8
    North Texas Mean Green
    9
    UTEP Miners
    10
    Rice Owls
    11
    FIU Golden Panthers


    Yahoo Sports
    Pete Fiutak
    Mon, July 18, 2022 at 3:28 PM?7 min read

    Just how much does it hurt Conference USA to lose Marshall, Old Dominion, and Southern Miss to the Sun Belt this season?


    The league had to quickly scramble this offseason to change up its schedule, it?s having to do even more to keep the business going with Charlotte, FAU, North Texas, Rice, UAB and UTSA bolting in 2023 ? Liberty, New Mexico State, Sam Houston and Jacksonville State will enter the fun ? and all of that will likely be the main focus of the 2022 season.

    And then UAB, UTSA and WKU should be the stars of the conference again.

    Where?s the big surprise going to come from?

    The problem is that too many schedules have too many tough non-conference games, but it should be entertaining as several teams will likely be fighting for bowl eligibility over the final few weeks.

    Knowing there?s going to be a crazy outlier to screw this all up, here are the 2022 Conference USA preseason predictions.

    ? 2022 CFN College Football Preview of Every Team

    Conference USA Preseason Predictions
    Conference USA Predicted Finish
    1. UTSA
    2. WKU
    T3. Florida Atlantic
    T3. Louisiana Tech
    T3. North Texas
    T3. UAB
    7. Middle Tennessee
    8. Charlotte
    T9. Rice
    T9. UTEP
    11. FIU

    ESPN

    UTSA   55   32   89   8.2   5.9   97%
    Western Kentucky   53   21   93   9.4   5.9   99%
    UAB   57   68   43   8.5   5.8   98%
    North Texas   84   81   86   6.6   4.5   77%
    UTEP   103   112   81   6.1   4.3   66%

    Just a little fat for chewing.

    Chanson

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #1 on: July 22, 2022, 06:41:03 PM »
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  • Great write up, KY.

    I would pay for you to do that on a weekly. My eye is on this team, this year. This coach & this team need to perform. The one thing I'd like tonsee the most is that great defense. If they can up last year's performace, they will win a lot of games.
      "He who has nothing which is more important than his own personal safety, is a miserable creature & has no chance of being free unless kept so by better men than himself.

    kyyote

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #2 on: July 22, 2022, 06:54:05 PM »
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  • Thanks. I just copied from what was out there. I thought it was amazing how different the tales were. I do think that most agree that the defense should be even better. I know that I am in the minority in thinking as highly as I do of Hardison. I am fine with that. I have finally come to believe that CDD may have been right about trusting the process. The entire team is a year older, stronger and more experienced than they were last year. And they got a taste.

    SisyphusMiner

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #3 on: July 23, 2022, 09:14:09 AM »
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  • I am more optimistic about trusting the process.  I believe we are gradually significantly improving talent at all positions, and that talent appears to be better coached. 

    As I've mentioned I think a lot of the vanilla play calling has to do with how much CDD thinks Hardison can handle, and our margin.  When we're up by 10 we shut down the offense.  When we're down by 10 we open up the offense.  If we can dominate from the ground we do that.  If we need to do more we see how Hardison is throwing the ball.


     If we finish as bad as Athlon thinks, I'll be very disappointed and question the process.  If we win 6-7 games I'll feel that we're still on track.  More than that and I'm giddy.


    I am concerned about CUSA, it's talent level, prestige, and the effects that will have.  My sense right now is that we're going to be a lot like 3A high school football.  Well coached teams will perpetually be near the top.  Any given year, the team that has 2-3 dominatingly better athletes will be the one that wins the district.

    kyyote

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #4 on: July 23, 2022, 11:15:23 AM »
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  • Your last paragraph is what scares me to death. We are in a fight for our football program?s life. An analogy if you will. A playground anywhere. Teams are chosen. At the end of picking, players are leftovers. What do they do?  Get better or eventually lose interest. We are on a team, but it may be the team of the worst and some pretty good eighth graders going into high school. The next time teams are picked?  Three ways to go. Stay the same and flirt with not getting picked. Get worse and we may finally have reached the not picked status.  Or get better.
    We cannot have ok teams right now!  We can?t be the same as we always have been. We have to actually be better. Believably better. We have to actually be good enough that we are wanted and not just needed to make the last team. 
    People are already talking about the advantages and disadvantages cusa teams will have in recruiting.

    KiddMiner

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #5 on: July 23, 2022, 12:56:01 PM »
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  • Hey KY, you've used the playground analogy before, and every time your spot on.... my concern is maintaining the progress. How is it when we start to make progress from playing on the hard pack surface to the green field that we move backward or better yet why? I believe it's the notion we have to maintain our "status as a BB school" that has hurt. Imagine if CMP had the funds to actually have had a quality staff.

    My thoughts anyway and going forward I hope the current AD dept understands this.
    I hope UTEP and the city continue to expand on the 915 campaign as I believe it has the potential make good things happen.

    Picks Up!!!

     
    Picks Up!! GO MINERS!!!

    SisyphusMiner

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #6 on: July 23, 2022, 12:58:16 PM »
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  • I'm not sure we understand what it takes to be picked.  I'm not sure that being good at football or basketball matters.  I'm not sure what the criteria is, but I'll bet it involves money changing hands under the table.

    Witness:  Charlotte is going to AAC

        Largest crowd ever: 19,151
        All time record:  39-77
        2019 was their only winning season ever

       They are not even an afterthought in the sports universe of Charlotte. 


    There is something else at play here.
       

    MinerInWisconsin

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #7 on: July 23, 2022, 10:00:06 PM »
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  • With the AAC expansion it was markets, recruiting areas and schools willing to spend money on facilities, coaches, etc.

    While that was going on, the MWC considered going after some big Texas markets and schools for the same reasons. An athletic director from Colorado St said they wanted athletes and students from those areas even if the schools didn't have good football.

    UTEP's market and recruiting area aren't big enough to move the needle so UTEP does need to be good in football to the point where people will want to tune in when they are on tv. They need to be relevant because if the MWC needs a replacement those big Texas markets are not available. The AAC gobbled them up after they failed to get schools to move from the MWC. Whether the AAC meant to or not, they effectively blocked the MWC out of much of Texas which sets UTEP up to be a top pick by the MWC if they need to backfill.

    I don't think the market strategy works the way those conferences want it too. UTEP would probably bring more eyeballs than UNT because UTEP is the only game in town in a medium sized market while UNT is an after thought in the DFW area.

    It's probably futile but I'm pulling for the MWC to lose a team or 2 or 3 and that UTEP is their first pick.

    SisyphusMiner

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #8 on: July 24, 2022, 06:29:47 AM »
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  • That?s what they tell us, but these schools share of those markets is non existent.

    kyyote

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #9 on: July 24, 2022, 09:03:49 AM »
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  • This is a great discussion.  So many excellent points!  Conference expansion or realignment.  It depends on where you stand.  Is the Big12 expanding or being realigned, or both?  Broadcast money is the real king of the world, now isn't it.  Not regional rivalries.  Not butts.  Eyeballs.  Texas and Oklahoma knew that more eyes would be there for UT versus Alabama than all of the rest of the big12 teams other than OU combined.  The stars need to play other stars.  That is the rule to shoot for.  Week in and week out.  The SEC still has fat to be trimmed, as does the Big10.  Stars need to continue to gather until it is all stars playing stars.  So the changing will continue.  Conferences will be made on eyeballs not regional rivalries.  Those regional rivalries are from the olden days when travel was actual travel and not a flight.  Neither El Pasoans or Las Cruceans are bragging about beating the other, especially to anyone else in the world. 

    This is for sure.  More conference changes will come.  Being ready for them means one thing-winning.  Win and live on and move up.  Lose and well, there isn't much room left for that.  Brass tacks.  Games this season are tryouts.  Auditions, Whatever.  We need a win over UNT.  The game is a nothing burger to them.  They are moving on up.  We need the win to show that we are on the same level.  The perception is that we aren't.  OU we need to not be a joke.  Play them tough.  NMSU needs to be a cake walk.  Sucks, but true and it may not be.  But we can't afford to be having Hell with the 8th graders.  UNM and Boise State are flat out auditions.  We need very much to be able to beat UNM or play toe to toe with them.  That only shows that we could maybe hang.  Beat Boise and all of a sudden the MWC isn't too good for UTEP.  One game.  Even if they would beat us the next nine, that one would be the one that said we can.  The cusa tams fall into teams that are thought to be better than us and those staying at our lowly level.  We have to beat both groups of teams.  Have to.

    I was raised in the Bay Area of California and had an outsider's view when I moved to El Paso in 81.  In my mind there were football schools who were so good that they were also good basketball schools, too(ie; UCLA of the 60-70's).  Then there were the next level of schools that were football schools.  Then there were the schools that weren't able to be good at football and they were basketball schools.  Then there were the Track and Field schools.  UTEP was for as long as I have known it was a basketball, excellent 2nd level teams except for the 66 team basically and for a long time a leading T&F school.  Cute but football is almost all that really matters.  In the last 20-30 years basketball has become more than the distant 2nd place to football,  but fb is still king.
    Since the 80's, Natalicio was on a mission and it was an academic mission(as it should have been) but athletics was left up to Stull.  He was a money man and left his mark in the buildings and facilities built under him.  Athletics-actually football which is king and bb he was somewhat mixed in his success, but what is critical is that was during a time of much change.  Break up of the WAC and rebuild of it.  Move to C-USA, and the spit up of it.
    So, we have pretty nice facilities.  The Tier 1 status has raised the standards and reputation of the academics.  The fans are widely known to be  passionate and come out in big numbers to support the team.  And we are barely surviving. 
    Why?
    Television audience?  Is that it?  El Paso TV sets?  How many TV sets are in Stillwater, Oklahoma or Ames, Iowa?  So, tv sets by themselves are not the answer.  It is also who you play?  Nobody wants to be able to brag that they watched their team beat up eight graders from the middle school.  But beat up the bully from Norman and you can brag for years.  That is the crux of the whole thing. For the most of the last 40  years UTEP has been the 8th graders from the middle school. When our 8th graders were even ok the people supported them.  Ask yourself if location or tv sets would be a problem if the football team was always good.  Hell, to the no!  Ask BYU, Utah, TCU, Houston, SMU, or others if it was the location, tv sets or butts in the seats, or if it was our horrible football dragging their credibility down that was the problem.
    So, the question that has to be asked is why has UTEP football been so bad.  Recruiting to El Paso or UTEP is tough.  MY ass!  That is just bullshit.  Well, let me clarify that because it is UTEP, but not because it is a bad school.  It is because it is known to be a horrible football team.  Losers.  And winners like to be where winners are.  The thing is, we can eliminate so much of the bullshit and boil it all down to going from losers to not being losers.  The old saying winning solves everything is true for a reason.  I still don't understand "the process" because CDD started as a solid loser which defies the logic but it is the winning that he is using to bind together a winning team now.   As I have been saying for forty years now, we are at the edge of the black hole, and we have to drag ourselves away.  And it is done with wins.  Wins over teams that build UTEP's respect.  That is why even though I have been saying it for 40 years, this year is the year that could be either the beginning of the end or the beginning of the new beginning.

    « Last Edit: July 24, 2022, 11:29:02 AM by kyyote »

    SisyphusMiner

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #10 on: July 24, 2022, 11:32:27 AM »
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  • Wins matter to me and you, but I'm still not sure that's what matters to conferences.

    Stillwater, Ames, there's lots of colleges in the middle of nowhere. Why can they recruit?

    One thing that has to be accepted when it comes to recruiting and to marketing ourselves is that El Paso has an extremely poor perception in the rest of the country.  Upon mentioning that I am from El Paso I have literally had people say "Oh, I'm sorry."  And these are people that grew up in literal s***holes.   People's perception of EP is just awful around the entire country, and EP needs to understand that and do something about it.  So does UTEP.

    Is racism involved?  Maybe.  San Antonio doesn't have the same perception problem.  I think El Paso would do a lot of good for itself by turning itself into a tourist destination.  I think once people perceive a place as a destination instead of a dead end it makes a big difference.

    kyyote

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #11 on: July 24, 2022, 12:45:06 PM »
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  • I used to think that might be it. But we have learned that players are as mercenary as it gets. The smart ones get degrees but they are young men away from home. The level of commitment may be not as high the lower you get conference wise. But Gonzaga has shown that if you build it the eyes and money will come. I have lived in Eastern Washington and trust me the players are there for the basketball.  If we win players want to be part of a winner.

    SisyphusMiner

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #12 on: July 25, 2022, 11:17:02 AM »
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  • It is true that Charlotte has a sports improvement vision and plan in place. 
    https://charlotte49ers.com/news/2022/5/23/Charlotte-Unveils-EverGreen.aspx

    However, it looks to me like all it does is bring them close to what we already have.

    The "major market" thing makes no sense to me.  What good does it do to be in a major market if no one in that market gives a rats ass about your team? 
    I don't think it's really about giving schools recruiting access to those markets either.  As Kyy has said, players are mercernary.  They don't care where you are.

    So I still just don't see what UNT, Rice, Charlotte, etc are bringing to the table.  It still looks to me like ESPN is picking winners and losers for reasons of their own.

    kyyote

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #13 on: July 25, 2022, 12:43:40 PM »
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  • Holy shit!  You just hit it?  I just figured it out. Story lines.  Broadcast stories. The Roadrunners road theirs like a twenty foot wave.  Look for the potential stories and who cares. And it is almost entirely owned by espn. We have some stories, for sure. But to whom can they be told?
    Unt won?t interest too many.  But OU and UTEP will be huge as it will be a huge story for both teams. The world will be watching. What other games can we attract eyeballs?  Stories?  The split will be the natural story for those that it applies. We need wins to show that we can and to establish ourselves at the top of the new conference to come.

    SisyphusMiner

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    Re: C-USA Football Predictions
    « Reply #14 on: July 25, 2022, 01:07:47 PM »
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  • I guess the 108 year old pillow fight with series with NMSU isn't a story.   ;D