Dimel and Time of Possession

[kyyote]

I believe Mark Twain said there was lies, damned lies, and statistics.  Dimel's entire offensive philosophy is based on winning the time of possession battle because statistically he says if you do you win 95% of the time.  Don't hold me to that, but I do believe I heard him say that basically.  Well, I went back and looked at wins, losses, and winning and losing the time of possession battle.  I went back to 2017.  Since then we have played 69 games(not including this year).  Of the 69 games, we lost 26, (37.6%) games when we lost the top battle, and 26 (37.6%) when we won the top battle.   We won 16 of 69 games when we won the time of possession or 23% of our games.  So, Dimel was right in that about 1 of 4 games we played we we able to win if we won the time of possession compared to the 37.6% of the games we lost when we won the time of possession.  By the way, we actually won one game even though we didn't win the clock trophy.

Thirty seven point six percent of the games were lost and the top was lost.  Out of 69 games 42 were games in which the time of possession was won by UTEP.  That is about 61% of the games  Of the 42 games, 26 were lost and 16 were won.  He will tell you to look at the improvement the last two years.  Go take a look at the teams we beat.  Other teams may win 95% of the games in which they win the clock.  Not UTEP.  The only way we win is when we have more points than the other team. Dimel's turtle offense is just almost antithetical to scoring points as that requires the turtle to give the other team the ball.  If Dimel could forfeit every game he probably would because he could say he didn't get beat.  Especially if they gave him a trophy and extension!

[SisyphusMiner]

TOP requires you to actually score which is something Dimel has been remarkably bad at.  I think we've had one of the worst red zone offenses in the country his entire tenure here.

I've come to the conclusion we need a high scoring offense.  If you were an offensive player at any position at all, would you rather play for a team that scored 14 points a game or 35?  Duh.  You want the team that's going to pad your stats.

It seems like we can generally get 2 out of 3 of speed, size, and skills.  Every once in a while we get a Cowing that has all three.  This staff does not appear to my eyes to be very good at developing skills, so we have to recruit skill and give up either speed or size and it seems like Dim has gone all in on size.

I swear our running plays are the slowest developing plays I've ever seen.  The D already knows we're running between the tackles on first down.  By the time lumbering Hankins has the ball in his hands it's been 3 seconds and he's still 3 or 4 yards behind the line of scrimmage.  He doesn't even have time to get up a head of steam before he's hit.

[Minermojo]

I don't know if it's Hankins fault entirely, I think it's the QB and the coach calling the plays. We need a new coach...and QB. Heck, I'd rather we lost with someone that moves the team than to lose with a lumbering turtle. I run faster than this joker and I ain't no spring chicken. No seriously I've never been a fast runner but I can bet you that I could have beaten Hardison in a 100 yard dash.

[SisyphusMiner]

Yeah I wasn't really trying to say it was all on Hankins.  There just seems to be something about UTEPs run plays.  Watch a UTEP run play and an UTSA run play from last year.
Maybe it is cause Hardison is so darn slow and telegraphs it.

[kyyote]

I may be wrong (although my wife says I am never wrong) but I think he is running a read option that depends on reading what the linebacker does. So he is back there deciding what to do depending on what the linebacker is doing. That puts us in the position of hanging out three or four yards deep while the defensive line is rushing at him. He is so important to the passing option though that he doesn?t run as much as he should because he is too important.

[Chanson]

Fellas. Sorry for not participating. This team, for the last 10 years, has just taken the wind out of my sail. The last I paid attention was when Jones was running the ball. What a shame.

[kyyote]

We average 34 minutes a game on offense scoring an average of 24.4 points per game for an average of 0.72 points per minute of possession.  Out opponents last season averaged 27 points per their 26 minutes when they had the ball for an average of 1.04 points per minute they had the ball.

Arizona is not one of the average teams we played last season.  I figure we will get our 34 minutes of top but at  a reduced rate of 0.6 points per minute we earn 21 points and AZ will inflate our normal rate of 1.04 points per minute to  1.5 points per their 25 minutes to give them 37.5 points. 

[SisyphusMiner]

UTEP is # 18 in time of possession.  They are #125 in points per game

[kyyote]

Ninety-five percent of the time when a team wins time of possession they when the game. Per Dimel

We are the 5%!  The rock solid five percent that loses. Finds ways to lose. Curve breakers.

[kyyote]

WE WON THE TIME OF POSSESSION BY NINE SECONDS!!

We scored 0.93 points per minute with our 30 minutes and they scored 1.5 points per minute during their 30 minutes of possession.  You ask if it is a lack of points per minute of offense or if it is the ppm given up by the defense or both.  I randomly decided that I would look at the 10th, 75th and 100th ranked teams to see how they compare.

10 FSU  beat Clemson 31-24 in OT
FSU scored 1.24 points/minute in their 25 minutes top.  Their defense gave up 0.69 ppm when Clemson had the ball for their 25 minutes.
75 Indianna Indianna beat Akron in OT 29 27
IU scored 1.11 ppm in their 26 minutes of top and defensively allowed Akron to score 0.79 ppm in their 34 minutes of top.
100 Stanford Stanford lost 20 to 21 to AZ
Stanford won the TOP but lost the game.  They scored at a rate of 0.65 ppm by gave up 0.72 ppm on defense.

Just a snapshot, but 2 of the three teams lost TOP and won.  One won top and lost.  Can you make a generalization that it is more impo rtant to be able to score more than a ppm on offense and be able to do the opposite on defense than win the TOP?

[SisyphusMiner]

That seems logical.

It's really simple though.  This is Dimel's 6th year.  We are 1-4.  If what he's doing was going to work it would be working by now.  His best year here was 7 wins and he had a very good defense.

Observationally, he can't manage the clock, can't manage getting personnel on and off the field, can't generate discipline.  He occasionally calls a good game offensively but more often does not.  He cannot coach a comeback from behind.   This offensive genius requires a defense to keep the other team from scoring more than 14 points to have a chance.  Every opposing coach knows how to stop it.  Time to move on.

His best year ever anywhere as a head coach was 8 wins in 1997.  Prior to UTEP he had 3 winning seasons -- all at Wyoming and they were his first three years as a head coach. Then he went to Houston and had three losing seasons and was fired.
 
I think it's hugely important to point out that at Wyoming he took over a squad in 1997 that had gone 10-2 in 1996.  After he left they won 4 games over the next 3 years.  So he sure didn't leave them loaded with talent.

[MinerInWisconsin]

That seems logical.

It's really simple though.  This is Dimel's 6th year.  We are 1-4.  If what he's doing was going to work it would be working by now.  His best year here was 7 wins and he had a very good defense.

Observationally, he can't manage the clock, can't manage getting personnel on and off the field, can't generate discipline.  He occasionally calls a good game offensively but more often does not.  He cannot coach a comeback from behind.   This offensive genius requires a defense to keep the other team from scoring more than 14 points to have a chance.  Every opposing coach knows how to stop it.  Time to move on.

His best year ever anywhere as a head coach was 8 wins in 1997.  Prior to UTEP he had 3 winning seasons -- all at Wyoming and they were his first three years as a head coach. Then he went to Houston and had three losing seasons and was fired.
 
I think it's hugely important to point out that at Wyoming he took over a squad in 1997 that had gone 10-2 in 1996.  After he left they won 4 games over the next 3 years.  So he sure didn't leave them loaded with talent.

All good points. His offense really requires a dual threat qb and Hardison isn't that. Having a strong arm is great but being accurate is better as well as being able to run away from a rush. Dimel is not a great evaluater of qb's.

[kyyote]

MIW, I agree with that except I think it?s worse than that. Hardison is not running even though he is capable. He is a big strong studly dude. Not fast or nimble but acceptable speed and some strength.  But it is not that. The quarterback before him was a juco all-American dual-threat son of a coach quarterback and was never used right. Dimel is like he?s on a different note or the wrong day. Something. He passes when he should run. He runs when he should pass. He is a running team that has to invent formations to pick up two feet. And can?t. He runs an offense designed to eat time but he is always behind and needing points quickly. If only he could get the defense to make the opponent slow down and stop scoring so fucking fast. The insanity is part of what makes it so maddening. Sunday, Terry Bradshaw called out a coach and said he couldn?t coach for him (Bradshaw) because he was too stupid. Not those words but everyone else gasped and he stood by it. I said before that Dimel is probably a fine man and I am so stupid to think that I am in any position to even question his work that I should be ashamed. But I am not. I see his record and watch his teams. I am so tired of being mad. And losing.  Without it being a problem apparently with the people with whom it should be.

[Minermojo]

You say nice guys finish last? I agree, we shouldn't hire a guy because he's a nice guy. All the coaches that are great don't give a Schiff if they're liked or not. Mich. coach Jim Hargaugh, Woody Hayes, Bill Belichick, Tom Landry, the Alabama coach Lou Saban (?). I could go on and on but I think you get my drift. Dimel is not only inapt but lacks common sense...but yes, he's a nice guy. He should be in the priesthood instead.

I'm tired of Utep administration not giving a Schiff about Utep sports. One day there will be 3000 diehards in the stands and they are the only ones to blame. Can you hear me now Utep president whatever your name is.

[kyyote]

So, the Miners are at 10 minutes time of possession and 7 points. Right on their average of about .7 points per minute. They have also cut tech down to about three points per minute.