Pillow Fights, Muggings, Paydays, and Pistol Whippings

[kyyote]

Everyone loves the Top Twenty-Five polls and rankings.  Those things usually have little to do with us unless we are getting a payday.  UTEP playing NMSU had me looking up pillow fights and I discovered that this week at least is full of some really bad games/matchups.  So let's take a look at a Top Twenty of the Worst.  There are 131 FBS teams so the number 131 ranked ESPN rankings, or our Number 1 team is the University of Hawaii.  No pillow fight here.  They get fourth ranked Michigan.  You can decide if that is a mugging, payday, pistol whipping or a combination of those above and maybe some others of your own.  The second worst team in the country, New Mexico State University will take a bus down I-10 45 miles to the University of Texas at El Paso to play the 119th, or in our rankings the number 13th ranked, Miners in the Sun Bowl.  Clearly a Pillow Fight, but maybe kind of like two sisters because they are so close.  Therefore, there is a certain amount of viciousness possible even if not able to manifest it in doing and real damage, making it a bit more interesting.  Number 3/129 is UMass and they play Toledo. Fourth ranked Rice will pick on McNeese.  This is one of those where one of the worst teams is playing a team from a lower division, and who knows what category the game will end up in, or who will win.  Number 5/127 FIU will be tested by the 14th ranked Texas State Bobcats.  Sixth is Akron and they are playing Michigan State, so we know we can eliminate the pillow fight.  Next, Temple gets Louisiana LaFayette.  You tell me.  UL Monroe versus Nichols State.  Bowling Green will battle suit up against Eastern Kentucky.  There's a Dollhouse Burner waiting to happen.  Rounding out the top ten is UConn.  Poor bastards are playing Syracuse.  Lucky for them, the Orangemen are really bad this year.

Here is the rest;
Ball St v W Mich
Charlotte v Maryland
NIU v Tulsa
Navy v Memphis
CO St v MTU
Eastern Mich v Louisville
SJST v Auburn
Kent St v OU
Ohio v Penn St

Well, this weekend there will be feathers, and blood everywhere with a little money thrown in to cover the crimes.
 

[SisyphusMiner]

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/34534866/college-football-bottom-10-even-winners-escape-our-list

[kyyote]

lol. Well he gets paid and earns his money.

[SisyphusMiner]

I think I'm revising my criteria for success or failure for Dimel.  It's really simple and easy -- achieve 2 out of the 3 below.

1.  Do not lose to any teams with a losing regular season record. 
2.  Beat at least one team with a winning regular season record.
3.  Win a bowl game

Last year we lost to FAU who had a losing record.  We beat zero teams with a winning record.  I'm not even sure when was the last time UTEP beat a team that had a winning record.  Last bowl win we had LBJ was president, we hadn't landed on the moon yet, the Beatles were still together, and Andy Griffith was the #1 TV show.  I had not yet been born.

[kyyote]

 From espn power rankings

#1 University of Hawaii v Michigan UH gets crushed and holds down their spot.
#2 New Mexico State University v #13 University of Texas at El Paso UTEP probably loses ground just playing NMSU
#3 UMass v Toledo   Toledo is a 28.5 favorite.  UMass has nowhere to go but down, or up, actually.
#4 Rice v McNeese  FCS team  Winning, losing what difference does it make for Rice.  The best they can do is remain in the top five.
#5 FIU v #14 Texas State  This is a pillow fight to rival the UTEP NMSU affair.  Win or lose it doesn't really matter.
#6 Akron v Michigan State It is still Mich State.
#7 Temple v Louisiana LaFayette  Well, maybe.
#8 UL Monroe v Nichols State FCS team, so Monroe loses even if it wins.
#9 Bowling Green v Eastern Kentucky FCS team.  Winning is sometimes losing.
#10 UConn v Syracuse  At least UConn is trying.

Here is the rest;
#11 Ball St v W Mich
#12 Charlotte v Maryland
#13 UTEP v NMSU
#14 TX ST v #5 FIU
#15NIU v Tul
#16 Navy v Memphis
#17 CO St v MTU
#18 Eastern Mich v Louisville
#19 SJST v Auburn
#20 Kent St v OU

Key
Red=Payday/SLaughter
Pink=Pillow fight between two Top Twenty teams
Yellow=A TT team playing an FCS team
Green=Potential to move down with a win


The reason I posted the same information is to have a look at chances of getting out of the Top Twenty Worst.  As you can see, if you are in The Worst it isn't easy to get out or off of the list, especially if you are playing a payday/slaughter game or a FCS/Lower Level Team.  Pillow fights won't hardly help.  Look at the green games and notice they hardly exist at all.  As you can see, Navy, CoST, and Eastern Michigan might be able to make the move out of the top twenty.  Seven of the TT are playing payday/SLaughter games.  Three are playing FCS teams and that isn't hardly trying.  Four teams in our tt are playing each other and that will not exactly build up anyone's rankings win or lose.  The good play the good and get better and the bad play the bad and get worse. 

[SisyphusMiner]

University	Last Bowl Season	Last Bowl Game	Last Bowl Win
Charlotte
James Madison
Louisiana?Monroe	2012	2012 Independence Bowl
UMass
South Alabama	2016	2016 Arizona Bowl
Texas State
UTSA	2021	2021 Frisco Bowl
UTEP	2021	2021 New Mexico Bowl	1967
Eastern Michigan	2021	2021 LendingTree Bowl	1987
Indiana	2020	2021 Outback Bowl	1991
UNLV	2013	2014 Heart of Dallas Bowl	2000
Colorado	2020	2020 Alamo Bowl	2004
Kansas	2008	2008 Insight Bowl	2008
Connecticut	2015	2015 St. Petersburg Bowl	2009
Illinois	2019	2019 Redbox Bowl	2011

[kyyote]

I think I'm revising my criteria for success or failure for Dimel.  It's really simple and easy -- achieve 2 out of the 3 below.

1.  Do not lose to any teams with a losing regular season record. 
2.  Beat at least one team with a winning regular season record.
3.  Win a bowl game

Last year we lost to FAU who had a losing record.  We beat zero teams with a winning record.  I'm not even sure when was the last time UTEP beat a team that had a winning record.  Last bowl win we had LBJ was president, we hadn't landed on the moon yet, the Beatles were still together, and Andy Griffith was the #1 TV show.  I had not yet been born.

We play 5 teams that will have winning records and have already lost to two of them with a third loss coming to Boise State probably.   We play seven teams that will probably have losing records. So we are down to trying to win a game from the remaining two winners and trying not to lose one of seven games against losing teams. Or winning a bowl game.  Dude, you like making odds tables, right?  Look at your odds for beating FAU or UTSA, beating not six, but all seven other teams, and a bowl game win against a second team with a winning record probably. Dimel is doomed.

[SisyphusMiner]

OK, I'll even take one out of three as a sign of progress.

If we can't beat seven losing teams, or win one game against a winning team, in the 2nd weakest conference in the country then we still suck, just slightly less than the suckiest of the sucky.

Yes, I don't think this is an unreasonable expectation for 5 years into a rebuild.  Win the games you should win, or at least win one you shouldn't.

[kyyote]

"...we still suck, just slightly less than the suckiest of the sucky."

And the "just slightly" is razor thin.

But the worst part is that we are considerably better than we were two years ago.  That is a statement about just how horrible we were and not about how far we have come.  It also is a statement about just how fragile the progress made is.  Take Hardison away and would the team be right back to where it was two years ago?  Yep.  Hardison may be Texas Tech's quarterback, next year.

I have recently been wanting someone to ask Senter IF he even has a plan to move UTEP up in conference affiliation or is he happy to just sit by and see what happens to UTEP.  If he has no plan, he should be fired today, this morning.  And if he has a plan, I would sure like to see what it is and to be able to see if he is meeting the measurement objectives towards reaching his goal.

[SisyphusMiner]

I am 100% convinced Senter has no plan.  He had a "plan" when he interviewed for the job not knowing anything about the school or the community.  But like Tyson famously said "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth".

He no longer has a plan of any kind.  And Wilson is not asking for one.  I've heard enough from different angles to believe that her passivity is not limited to football.  She's just cashing a paycheck until her second retirement.

I'm not even convinced Dimel has a plan.  His plan was supposedly RPO but we haven't seen that.  Sure he's riding the horse he's got.  But he quite obviously has no idea how to run this style of offense and won't surrender play calling to the OC.  And as far as I know we have no QB on the roster capable of running RPO.  We're riding Hardison just like Kug rode Aaron Jones.  And maybe that's OK but find a coach that knows how to run that and let him run it.

[MinerInWisconsin]

Senter did try to get consideration from the mwc back when the AAC was poaching cusa last year. That resulted in writer McMurphy quoting a supposed mwc source as saying UTEP had zero chance of getting into the mwc. When Senter first arrived in EP he was asked about conference affiliation and he said a conference has to want you first and that's true.

It's not like UTEP can just call up the mwc and tell them we are joining. What UTEP has to do is create a winning football program that consistently draws good crowds in order to be ready for realignment if a school like Boise St or San Diego St are poached from the mwc. Right now we only offer a warm body with potential.

El Paso is not a big enough market to move the mwc needle. El Paso is not a hot bed for recruiting. El Paso has a lot of fans that want $5 tickets. El Paso has great support for a winning team but has had way too much losing to convince anyone outside of us diehards that UTEP would be a good add to the mwc or the aac.

UTEP actually has a better fanbase than a number of mwc and aac schools but if the Miners can't piece together more than one winning season every 7 or 8 years the perception of UTEP as a big loser won't change. I really thought this years team should win a lot of games and show everyone that the program has really turned the corner. It could still happen I suppose.

Oh, and Senter was quoted before the season that he thought a winning UTEP should be a Big 12 candidate. Personally I think UTEP will get the call from the mwc once they lose a school, which could be this year. The schools they really wanted are all in the aac now. Please UTEP, have a winning season, win a bowl game and say yes when the mwc calls.

[kyyote]

I really had no conference in mind and I have a particular distaste for the traitorous mwc.  But it is a move up conference wise.  Actually, I was speaking more in line of a plan that stops the slide and actually begins the work of moving up.  If his plan is we need to get better at football, I think it should be better than that.  I had measurable objectives that were detailed, monitored for progress and activities and efforts made to meet those objectives.  That is what I mean.   And I don't know of what we are doing other than hoping for football and basketball to get better.  What are the things being done to maximize our relationship with El Paso.  We all know that El Paso schools have spent as long as I remember going to Midland Odessa to get whupped.  Maybe we should invest a few hundred bucks in a billboard over there.  Just kidding but I am serious about detailed plans from Senter to stop the slide and make progress up.  There is no excuse for there not being a campaign to keep some of the best players here.  Aaron Rodgers Aaron Jones should be the leader of the campaign.  And when they stay there should be campaigns to make sure they weren't penalized for it.  A million ways the entire UTEP and UTEP Football experience should be-and could be.  We are a Tier 1 Research Institute!  Do a damned study on what it takes to have a successful div 1 fbs football program.

The Sun Bowl is a nice diversion for the local rich folks and two groups of people that come in and go out like the tide.  The Sun Bowl should be doing everything it can to save the Miners and play football for El Pasoans.  We are trading a weekend rental and the weekend of business while watching the home of the Sun Bowl, UTEP slip slide away. 
Sorry for the rant.  I don't see the progress we need as soon as we need or the indication that someone is aware of the problem and doing anything.

[SisyphusMiner]

Aaron Rodgers would be great.  Maybe Aaron Jones can call in a favor.   

[kyyote]

Sonofabitch!  lol

[kyyote]

I am going to cut it to the Top Ten Needing Wins.  That doesn't sound so negative and if we have learned anything in the last couple of years it is to not say the negative sounding things and then they aren't there. 

1. Florida International Panthers No Game Scheduled 0 chance of a W

2.  UMass Minutemen v Stony Brook   UMass 74% W

3.  Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors v Duquesne  90% chance of W

4.  New Mexico State Aggies v Wisc

5.  Akron Zips v #15 Tenn

6.  Bowling Green Falcons v Marshall   BG 4% chance of W

7.  UConn Huskies v #4 Mich

8.  Temple Owls v Rutgers Temple has a 10% chance of a W

9.  Charlotte 49ers v GA St    Char has 12% chance W

10. UTEP Miners v UNM   UTEP 28% chance W

There are the matchups, odds (rounded), and you can see which teams have a chance to move up, down, and out of the TTNW.