That is, they are 7.5 point underdogs to LA Tech. The reason I point this out is that we have them right where we want them. The Miners are averaging 25.8 points per game and LA Tech averages 33.4 and from that you can see that the score at the end of the came will be 33 or 34 to 26. Right? Not so fast, as Corso says.
Game 1
New Mexico State Aggies -9.5 59.5 Won 30 - 3 Win / Under
Notice that there was supposed to be 59.5 points scored. The predicted score was supposed to be 35-25 or so. We didn't score as much as they thought, but focus on 22 points that NMSU didn't score. Time of possession ball knocked about 27 points off of the expected total and 22 of those points were not scored by the opponent.
The next game was Bethune Cookman
I leave BSU out. You can fault me for that and it could be valid, but bear with me. I consider it to have been an outlier and truly believe that the score would be different if they played again-and BSU is damned good, too.
Back to work.
New Mexico Lobos 2.5 54 Won 20 - 13 Win / Under
Again, watch how it works. The score was supposed to be around 28 - 25 Miners. But, we shave 8 points off of our score AND hold the Lobos to 12 points under their expected score. Twenty points of Time of Possession forehead pounding points not scored!
Next.
Old Dominion Monarchs -5.5 48.5 Won 28 - 21 Win / Over
This one was close but still fits the pattern-barely. But it was a matter of shaving the half points. Plus, odds makers may have started to notice a change in the Miners.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles -1.5 46 Won 26 - 13 Win / Under
Here we go. Back on track! Game should have been 24 to 22+-.5 right? Nope! the Miners add a couple(in and offensive explosion) but importantly, they hold SM 9 points below expected!
Are you smelling what the Rock is cooking?
The LA Tech score is supposed to be about 31/32 to 24 LA Tech. The Miners are averaging 11 points under / game for the four games counted. More importantly, the Miners have held opponents to an average of 11 points a game less than expected. So, the 55 points total predicted, and a score of about 31 to 24 minus the 11 points per game would come down to 44. And the missing points of 11 per game overcomes their measly 7 to 7.5 points they are giving. So, seriously, the 7.5 points is certainly beatable if the previous games are an indication.
Anyway, when I wear my orange visor and play with numbers I can convince myself that the Miners have the LA Tech boys right in their sights and are getting ready to throw our visitors a surprise party. Take the under and Go Miners!
