A Little Deeper Dive Into the ODU Matchup

[kyyote]

Let's start with defense.  Some things may surprise you.  Both teams are playing pretty good defense.  ODU gives up 315 ypg and UTEP gives up 319.  ODU allows 176/55.8% yards per game rushing and  139/44.2 through the air.  Here's the important part, they allow 32.2 points per game for their 315 yards.

Now UTEP.  The Miners are allowing 204/63.9% yards rushing and just 115/36.1% yards per game through the air.  Pass defense is our strength!?  And we are kind of stingy in the red zone allowing just 24.5 points per game. 

Surprised?  The Boise game is the outlier and without is our defense is downright Iron Curtain shit!  But, it also kind of provides some balance for the level of the rest of the teams the Miners have played.  Still, how shocking is it to say the words UTEP Defense and stingy in the same breath, but it is.  Really.


Offensively, the Monarchs are a pretty balanced team leaning slightly leaning toward the running game.  They average 175/46.9% yards per game passing and 195/53.1% on the ground.  Shockingly, on the other hand, UTEP 239 yards per game, nearly 60% of their yards through the air and 161 yards per game from pounding the ground!  Let me say it a different way.  Since we all know we are a running team but the yards don't lie, we have a mad bomber who may not be pinpoint accurate, but if you drop big bombs they don't have to be pinpoint accurate.   ODU has a higher ranked quarter back.  Ratings smatings.  Ours must be putting points on the board instead.

Last thing, and it is important, is placekicking.  Our guy is damned good and theirs is ok.  This difference could easily end up being the difference in the outcome of the game.

[SisyphusMiner]

I think it's fair to remove the Boise game from the defense.  A game with 6 turnovers is too hard for a defense to retain focus.

Although it's a little hard to compare, because the opponents are lesser now, Praise Amaewhule is the most dominant D lineman I've seen in a UTEP uniform since Brian Young, or Tolbert.  He has a shot at the next level.  The D line can put enough pressure on CUSA quarterbacks to keep the pass plays short and fast.

I like our D coordinator.  We don't always come out right on point, but we make excellent halftime adjustments.

[liebestraum]

Ky - it is hard for me to take your ?deep dive? seriously without an exacting analysis of each team?s time of possession statistics.

lieb

[kyyote]

Laughing as I write. I was using the stats from espn+ and very much wanted to include it as I figure we will have the edge. But shockingly it was not a stat espn+ deemed important. As you and I both know 95% of all wins are determined by the time of possession. Maybe they figure with that knowledge all anyone would have to do is check the two teams top stats to determine the likely winner.

Since you have pointed out my glaring lack of inclusion of the foremost factor in determining winning and losing I feel my only chance of reclaiming any shred of my dignity and integrity in my analysis is to get that information and bring it to Denizens. Be back ASAP.

[kyyote]

From the NCAA stats page;

Rank  Team                 Games    ToP   AvToP 1   Army West Point   4   161   40 2   Western Mich.   4   147   36 3   Wisconsin   3   110   36 4   Air Force   4   146   36 5   Minnesota   4   142   35 6   Charlotte   4   139   34 7   Houston   3   103   34 8   Mississippi St.   4   137   34 9   Nebraska   5   171   34 10   Akron   4   135   33 11   Central Mich.   4   135   33 12   UAB   4   134   33 13   Rutgers   4   133   33 14   Indiana   4   133   33 15   UTSA   4   132   33 16   UTEP   4   132   33 17   Louisville   4   132   33 18   NC State   4   132   33 19   Liberty   4   132   33 20   San Diego St.   4   131   32 21   Purdue   4   129   32 22   Wyoming   4   129   32 23   App State   4   128   32 24   New Mexico   4   128   32 25   Navy   3   96   32 26   Kentucky   4   128   32 27   Florida   4   128   32 28   Arizona St.   4   128   32 29   Rice   4   127   31 30   Fresno St.   5   159   31 31   Iowa St.   4   127   31 32   Oregon St.   4   126   31 33   Maryland   4   126   31 34   South Fla.   4   126   31 35   Pittsburgh   4   126   31 36   Washington St.   4   125   31 37   Illinois   5   156   31 38   Georgia   4   125   31 39   Old Dominion   4   124   31 40   Iowa   4   124   31 41   UCF   3   93   31 42   TCU   3   93   31 43   Buffalo   4   124   31 44  Oklahoma   4   124   31 45   Southern Miss.   4   123   30

I included some other teams I felt might be worthy of note.  As you can see, we have been in the trenches with others who see the value of ToP and we have come out on top.  But, we will be challenged.  Even ranked 16th in the country, we will have to do better in games to come.

By the way, in the clash of the Titans between the Miners and the Lobos 16th ranked versus 24th ranked the Time of Possession was UTEP 30 minutes and 8 seconds and of course the Lobos held the ball for 29 minutes and 52 seconds. 
 
 
 

[SisyphusMiner]

So I'm hearing we have a shot at the Bulova Time O' Possession Bowl?

[kyyote]

Shhhhhhh......... don't jinx us!  Not counting precious seconds before they tick or tock or anything, but if Army falls below complete 40+ minutes ToP per game, we could have a shot at the Rolex, in Greenwich.  I don't now just how it is that the Cadets have played four games and have had the damned ball for every minute and then some of every game.  Talk about ball control.   Sheesh!

[kyyote]

Just a few more things to add to what we know.  The Miners are tied with 8 other teams with 8 sacks averaging 2 per game, while the Monarchs weren't listed in the sacks category.  The Miners are averaging 6 tackles for a loss to ODU's 5 per game.  It would appear that the Miners have the edge here.

The Miners are ranked a downright damned respectable 68 averaging 6.06 yards per play on offense, while the Monarchs are listed at 86th averaging 4.80 yards per play.

The Miners statistically are slightly better offensively, defensively, on special teams.  Not a lot in any of the areas, but pretty much numerically consistently in each category I looked. 

Except this one.  Monarchs are ranked 85th in penalty yards per game but the Miners are the 4th worst team in the country(127th) in yards penalized per game at a whopping 95.5 yards.  Sonofabitch if this isn't the kind of thing to show up and kick you in the nuts in a close game.

Then, there's the travel and playing in the Sun Bowl with the hometown loons slathered and slobbering for a win in a desperate way no one anywhere else in the country can understand. 

[liebestraum]

Shhhhhhh......... don't jinx us!  Not counting precious seconds before they tick or tock or anything, but if Army falls below complete 40+ minutes ToP per game, we could have a shot at the Rolex, in Greenwich.  I don't now just how it is that the Cadets have played four games and have had the damned ball for every minute and then some of every game.  Talk about ball control.   Sheesh!

Army at #1, Air Force at #4 and Navy at??.  #25?? 

lieb

[SisyphusMiner]

Well, we find ourselves at 4-1, with the 2nd best record in CUSA.  2 more wins to bowl eligibility.

The good:
                We pulled out a tough victory against a team that is better than their record would indicate
                The defense only gave up 14 points
                Hardison was a little better on short passes.
                Our pass protection is generally pretty decent
                We are somewhere in the top 50 in both offensive and defensive yards
                You can see glimpses of what our offense could be with a dual threat quarterback

The bad:   We don't have a dual threat quarterback.
                We can't establish the run because every team expects us to run up the middle 75% of the time
                Penalties continue
               

The ugly:   Our offense.  We manage to get it done, but it's not pretty.
                 Dimel game management

[Chanson]

Hey. I want to get in on this. 1st of all, great win. 4-1 is crazy and I never thought I'd see the day when our Miners would be in the advantage seat. 2 more wins & we are bowl eligible and we aren't even midway through the season.
1st, I love the stats and comparisons y'all put up. That is a testament to hard work.
2nd, let's talk about some ugly. Last 3min of 2nd Q & most of 3rd Q was No Bueno on both sides of the ball. Coaches & kids couldn't figure out how to get out of the funk. Also, fouls are going to cost us a game or 2 down the road if they don't get ahold of it.
3rd, we have a defense, folks. Secondary has stepped it up while the box continues to plug holes, kids are tackling at a high level, pressure on the QB has advanced, & the confidence level is not like I have seen before.
4th, when the offense fell in a rutt, Dimel runs a no huddle along with the Wild Cat.

On to Southern Miss. The team doesn't have a good record, but they always play the Miners well. It is winnable, but no push over by any means.

[SisyphusMiner]

4th, when the offense fell in a rutt, Dimel runs a no huddle along with the Wild Cat

Can you expand on this?  Not sure where you are going with this?

I am also interested whether Dimel inserted Brownholz by choice or was there an issue with Hardison?  It seems like a good plan for the future when we are nursing a lead and trying to kill the clock.  It?s obvious we are running the ball in that situation so it adds a wrinkle for the opposing defense

[Chanson]

How I saw it was the offense couldn't get anything going. Then Brownholz comes in with the Wildcat and changes the momentum back to the Miners.
Now I realize that Hardison took a quick trip to the locker room, but he came back and finished. Which means he could have stayed in. The way I see it was Dimel changed it up, got Hardison checked in the meantime.
I hope this is what you were looking for, Sisy.

[SisyphusMiner]

Yes, thanks. I think that was a turning point in the game.  Only thing I worry is that Dimel will see that it worked and run the Brownholz wildcat 25 times a game.  Which if Brownholz was any kind of passing threat at all might work.  But it will mean that every time he is in the game they will stack 11 in the box.

[SisyphusMiner]

On the punt block...

Then, after holding the Miners on downs, the Monarchs blocked their fourth punt of the season, this one by Isaiah Spencer and AC White scooped up the ball and returned it 11 yards for the touchdown.
 
Rice then kicked the point after to give ODU its first lead of the game, 21-20, with 4:27 left in the third quarter.

"We talked all week about how we needed to scoop and score and that's what we did," Rahne said, adding that special teams coordinator Kevin Smith saw an opening to block the kick.

"Credit to them for seeing it and fixing it," he added of UTEP.

I for one am pretty ambivalent about our special teams.  They are way better than in past years, but the decisions on when to return, fair catch, or let it go are consistently awful.  I don't know if that's players making bad decisions or bad coaching.  Ditto on the blocked punt.  ODU says they say an opening and took advantage, but we fixed it.  So kudos to Aaron for fixing it, but the fact that ODU special teams coach saw an opening means we have had a problem that was visible on game film and we either didn't realize it until the block or just didn't bother fixing it until the block.