Here's my logic. It my be complete nonsense.
We for sure have tiebreaker against Rice having beat them twice. I have read that we have tiebreaker against the other teams having beaten them in the first part of the season but not sure that's true if we lose and end 1-1 against them.
If either Rice or USM wins all 3 of their games that team would have 8 wins and nether the other team or UTEP can win more than 7 (having both lost to the 8 win team). If we have 7 then we are tied and win the tiebreaker.
If no team finishes with 8 wins, then plausibly USM, UTEP, and Rice end with 7 wins and again we have tiebreaker against Rice. Basically again if we are one of the 7 win teams, we make it.
At 6 wins, we miss out if USM and Rice both have 7 or more.
So to summarize,
I think if we win 2 we are in.
If we win 1, then we need either USM or Rice to lose 2.
If we win 0, then we have a mathematical chance, but we suck too bad to even consider it.
Honestly, we would certainly lose in round 1 of the tourney anyway, but it would be nice to make it.