What if UTEP was allowed to pass but they just couldn't run the ball? You can eat all the chicken you want but no beef, and you pretty much eat beef almost every meal. You can fly anywhere you want but you hate flying and you aren't allowed to drive. The Miners love to run and have only this season even allowed the forward pass. They aren't all that good at running the ball though, but damned if they don't have a passer with a cannon for an arm.
Guess who is the second worse team in the country at giving up passing yards? Yup. LA Tech. They average giving up 320 yards a game to passing. They are ranked about in the middle at 74 in rushing defense. So, they will probably be able to stymie the Miners running game, but Hardison is going to be served a feast. How much he will eat is a different thing altogether. And, Dimel doesn't care if they stymie the run as long as he is eating up the clock. The score is critical. If we go up by 7 points first, we play ball control. If they go up by 7 first it won't change a thing. We play ball control eating away at the clock. So, it really comes down to defense for us.
LA Tech figures they can move the ball and score enough to just outscore us. We aren't into scoring all that much, so we almost help them in that way. They are 58th ranked in Total Offense averaging 412 yards a game and almost four offensive touchdowns per game. We are 74th averaging 388 ypg. Tech is 94th in Rushing offense. Here is the key. They are 28th in passing offense, averaging 283 yards a game.
So, they pass to put up points. They run to keep defenses honest. We haven't played anyone. Had to get that out of the way. But had we actually played any football teams, the NCAA says that we are very good at stopping the run. Fifteenth ranked actually. So, they will concede the run and we will shut it down. That means little, right. It is their damned passing game that must be stopped. So how might we be at pass defense, had we played anyone? We are ranked 42nd in passing yards allowed. But they are really good at passing. So, can we get a pass rush against them? We are ranked 40th in sacks per game and 19th, NINETEENTH in tackles for loss.
Of course, the Time of Possession will be won by UTEP win or lose. LA Tech scores 33 points a game in 28 minutes of possession, averaging 1.18 points per minute. We average about 26 points per our 33 minutes of ToP averaging just 0.79 points per minute while we have the ball. Looking at this, if everything went according to the stats, we would have the ball for 33 minutes and they would win 33 to 26. Exactly as the spread is being bet on. But, remember what I told you in another post. The Miners are allowing an average of 11 points below what oddsmakers had predicted in the four games other than Boise and Bethune Cookman. Keep that in mind.
One more thing, and it may be the real deciding factor of the game is turnovers. They are excellent at forcing turnovers and we are towards the opposite end of the scale. A turnover either way could be the difference.
