Season outlook

[SisyphusMiner]

I pulled out my handy probabilities spreadsheet and assigned a probability of winning for each of the remaining games.  Using those assumptions, here is the outlook for the rest of the year.  If anyone disagrees on the probability of winning any game, I can re-run the spreadsheet in seconds.


Win chance %   Team      % Chance of winning   
               
Game 1   100   NMSU      None   0.00
Game 2   100   BCU      1 or more       100.00
Game 3   0   BSU      2 or more       100.00
Game 4   100   UNM      3 or more       100.00
Game 5   60   ODU      4 or more        97.95
Game 6   50   USM      5 or more        86.38
Game 7   35   La Tech   6 or more        60.19
Game 8   10   FAU      7 or more        29.44
Game 9   25   UTSA   8 or more          9.21
Game 10   35   UNT      9 or more          1.68
Game 11   60   Rice      10 or more   0.15
Game 12   10   UAB      11 or more   0.01
         

[kyyote]

This is what I predicted before and I would stand by it after the games I have seen except I now think that we might have a chance to beat Southern Miss.  They are a wounded bird this year it seems. But traveling and they will get tougher to keep from losing to UTEP.  It?s a pride thing.

 New Mexico State Aggies             W                           
Bethune Cookman Wildcats             W                     
 @ Boise State Broncos                      L                   
New Mexico Lobos                             W                         
   Old Dominion Monarchs                      W                       
   @ Southern Miss Golden Eagles              L                         
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs                      L                         
@ Florida Atlantic Owls                      L                         
 Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners          L                     
   @ North Texas Mean Green              W                         
  Rice Owls                                      W                         
   @ Alabama-Birmingham Blazers          L

[SisyphusMiner]

Updated the probabilities based on more games.  The easy part of our season is done and we took care of business.  I feel we have two "should win" games in USM and UNT, but both are on the road so I am giving them no more than 50%.  La Tech and Rice are "may win" games because we are at home, but they look like they might be better teams than us.  I fully expect us to get dominated by FAU, UTSA, and UAB

Probability of bowl eligibililty is now 66%


   Win chance %   Team      % Chance of winning   
               
Game 1   100      NMSU      None   0.00
Game 2   100      BCU      1 or more   100.00
Game 3      0      BSU       2 or more   100.00
Game 4   100      UNM      3 or more   100.00
Game 5   100      ODU      4 or more   100.00
Game 6     50      USM      5 or more   92.30
Game 7     35      La T      6 or more   66.04
Game 8     10      FAU       7 or more   31.34
Game 9    10      UTSA      8 or more   8.86
Game 10    50      UNT      9 or more   1.36
Game 11   35      Rice      10 or more   0.10
Game 12   10      UAB      11 or more   0.00