I tried to post a followup last night, but I guess it got lost in the ether.
Short version:
I looked up some stats and it appears that generically a favorite wins about 80% of the time regardless of bye week or not. Obviously the more they are favored the more likely to win, but overall around 80%
Coming off a bye week, the favorite wins about 75% of the time.
You always hear sportscasters talking about the advantages of a bye week but it just doesn't appear to make a very big difference.
For UTEP, the more relevant stat is that 2017-2021 we are 7-40. Some evidence that we are improving is that 5 of those 7 wins are in the current and last season. 2020 and 2021 inclusive we are 5-6. This is a huge improvement over the 2-34 from the previous 3 seasons