The Carousel Is Starting UP

[Minermojo]

Things are gonna get interesting again. I just wonder where Utep will fit into all this. I'd vote for NM and ColoSt to the Cusa. The others are too far west unless they go the divisions route, ala east and west. That would be fine, it works in the pros, there's not reason it couldn't work at the college level.

[kyyote]

I hadn?t seen it like that before but I don?t think it is a horrible idea. Utah State is a decent team and gives a footprint in Utah. Same with CO st. In a matchup between Liberty and Utah State I would not be afraid to take state without even looking into it. Air Force against La Tech WKU!  Those guys in Wyoming can get rough enough for MTU.

You have talked me into a pretty decent conference. Better than the Mac and sb?  Maybe.

[SisyphusMiner]

IDK if this will post correctly but I think Pitino has a good thought here

https://twitter.com/RealPitino/status/1688227511077937152?s=20

[kyyote]

I have been wasting considerable time looking at this.  The 4 teams(followed by the SP Rank) left in the PAC 4 will be Oregon State 24, Cal 51, Wazzu 62, and Stanford 71 with an average of 52.  The ACC's average is 43.64.  The AAC average is 84.92, followed by SB 91.78, MWC 99.25 and a weak C-USA at 116. 
Let's just say that an average of under 60 and as close to 50 as possible is what the PAC 10 would need to keep playing with the big boys.  They really only benefit from taking from the MWC is BSU 56, and Fresno 70.  If they go fishing in the AAC, they can get SMU 49, Tulane 55, Memphis58, and UTSA 61.  That would give them 10  The PAC10, and their average would be 55.7.  A tad weak, but still within reasonable reach of the ACC anyways.  But that is stop gap to save the conference.  They can't really add more or it weakens the strength of the conference.

If that were to happen, I want to focus on what happens to the MWC,  and AAC.  With those teams gone from the MWC it s new average would be 106.4 and the new average for the AAC would be 96.6.

At that point, though, the MWC and the AAC would need to replace teams.  Who's left out there to poach.  The new rankings would be SB 91.78
AAC 96.6
MWC 106.6
MAC 109.16
CUSA 116
There really isn't enoughop teeams in those conferences to make a better one really. 

[kyyote]

A little more information.  The MWC teams would face 34 million dollar buy outs to leave the MWC.  The All American Conference has said they would take the 4 pac teams.  But if those four had to play with all of the aac members they would be no longer in a power conference.  In order to remain with any hope of remaining as power teams, and that hope is fading, I really have to say that Wazzu and Oregon State are looking at taking a red hot poker to the butt.  Stanford and Cal are trying to get into the ACC laving WA St and Oregon State to play in the MWC.  In order to understand the poaching possibilities and limitations I will show conferences and rankings.

AAC

Charlotte 49ers  118
East Carolina Pirates  76
Florida Atlantic Owls 82
Memphis Tigers 58
Navy Midshipmen 108
North Texas Mean Green  84
Rice Owls  107
SMU Mustangs 49
South Florida Bulls  104
Temple Owls  110
Tulane Green Wave  55
Tulsa Golden Hurricane  98
UAB Blazers  79
UTSA Roadrunners 61


Mountain West

Air Force Falcons  86
Boise State Broncos  56
Colorado State Rams  122
Fresno State Bulldogs  70
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors  116
Nevada Wolf Pack  117 
UNLV Rebels  89
Utah State Aggies  113
Wyoming Cowboys  90

Conference USA
Florida International Panthers  129
Jacksonville State Gamecocks  131
Liberty Flames  97
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs  101
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders  112
New Mexico State Aggies  130
Sam Houston Bearkats  132
UTEP Miners  124
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers  88

One thing I want to say is that when you play teams in your conference that are in the 120's and 130's you can't win.  If you beat a team in the 130's it is seen as beating up an 8th grader.  And if you lose you got beat by an 8th grader.  Out of conference games are our only way to improve.  Middle Tennessee and WKU already tried to get to the MAC.  They will be gone as soon as they can.  I would guess that below 100's are going to want to separate themselves from the over 100 teams.  MWC has 5, the aac have 9 and c-usa 2.  Eleven of the 14 Sun Belt teams are under 100 with8 of the 11 in the 80-90's.  The MAC has 3 in the under 100.

Finally, I don't think the Vandy's, Wake Forest's, and Northwestern's are safe.  Those teams are getting free money from the moneymakers and they hate that!  They will cut the fat.

[liebestraum]

I have to say I am getting a big kick out of all this.  Sportscasters moaning about how ?money is ruining all these storied rivalries.?  Money, well TV money has been ruining college sports for many years.  Hell, that is why we now have Power 5, Mid-majors, and whatever else.  The mid-majors have been dealing with this for years and no one has given a shit.  But - oh my - now that this has started to mess up the superstar conferences, we suddenly have a real crisis on our hands.

So, let Cal and Stanford join the (snicker) ATLANTIC Coast Conference.  And the Big ?10? will have 16 teams, as will the Big ?12?.  I bet Norte Dame forms a conference just for itself.  Just one team.  They will win so many championships!

Loving every minute of this fiasco.

lieb

[kyyote]

Looking at the early season games, where the lion's share of the OOC games are we can see chances for the conference to improve the conference's ranking.

The first week is a long one with UTEP having two games during that time.

124 UTEP v 131 JSU  JSU is favored.
133 UMass v 130 NMSU
129 FIU v 101 LA T  Conference game
125 Bowling Green v 97 Liberty
101 LA T v 49 SMU
ETSU v 131 JSU
104 USF v 88 WKU
Maine v 129 FIU
112 MTU v 2 Alabama
West Ill v130 NMSU
Inc Word v 124 UTEP
132 Sam v 60 BYU

week 2
UTEP v 67 NW
NMSU v Liberty
84 UNT v FIU
JSU v Coastal Car
Northwestern St v LA T
112 MTU v 40 Mizzu
Houston Christ v 88 WKU
86 AFA v 132 Sam

Liberty v 103 Buff
FIU v 119 UConn
WKU v 1 Ohio St
84 UNT v LA T
Murry St v 112 MTU
130 NMSU v 126 UNM
UTEP v 59 AZ

LA T v 52 NE
109 EMU v JSU
Lib v FIU
Sam v 54 Houston
122 CO St v MTU
WKU v 69 Troy
105 UNLV v UTEP
NMSU v 116 Hawaii
MTU v WKU
JSU v Sam
LA T v UTEP

Looking at this, itis obvious that how Sam and Jacksonville St are able to handle the step up will be critical. NMSU having a conference should help them. 

UTEP is expected to win five or six games.  We are all fired up thinking it is a 9 or 10 win season ahead.  That would be a great signal that we have found something special, maybe.  Back to reality.  Five games would equal last year.  Disappointing.  Six wins would be Bowl eligible and a probable bowl loss.  Better than nothing, but still disappointing. If UTEP wins seven or eight, goes bowling and wins or loses a bowl game it has been a great year.  Win the bowl game and the great becomes gold plated, Dimel is no longer an idiot.  Really, that is about it.  More wins than that don't makeanything really any better.  After that comes elevation based on repeatability.

[Minermojo]

You're so right Lieb. Now that WS and OSU are being left behind they'll get a dose of what most G5 felt. Some got lucky and were plucked into the Cartel and some just into a higher rated G5. We've been stuck in the Wac, forgotten by the Mwc and AAC, AAC, (sorry got something stuck in my throat) and are relegated to now playing Ex-FCS teams IN our league. I guess we should be glad since we made our own bed with lousy ADs and uncaring school presidents. But now these schools that used to thumb their noses at us are now wishing someone takes them, anyone. Because you can't have a league with only 4 school in it, and don't we know it.

If the Mwc took those leftover Pac schools and then invited Utep I would hope that we would go but like most dreamers my dreams don't come true.