Total Defense

[kyyote]

Before today.
Total Defense
47 UTEP 356 yrds/gm

today
329

[SisyphusMiner]

#17 in red zone defense.

 Total defense could be dismissed because of quality of competition or because of our clock eating offense.  But I don't think there's a way to dismiss red zone defense.

Our defense gives me heart attacks.  They give up huge plays, but then they make huge plays and shut the other team down.  Overall the most exciting part of this team.

[kyyote]

We can only play the teams on our schedule.  When we do, we are stingy.  Everyone is playing their schedule too, and we are doing well for ourselves.  Of course, our clock eating offense plays a role in the strength of our defense.  That is part of the design, and to some extent the built into it the stalling of drives early on at times.  At times we want to open things up and we are too married to the run, but it is something that we have to commit to if that is what we are doing-and it is.  I thought that Dimel actually called a good game, for the most part. 

I think that we are so frustrated with the offense at times that I just didn't want the actual play and achievements on the field to go without proper notice.  The defensive coordinator has them playing hard smart ball.  It isn't flawless, but it is highly likely to thwart a drive somehow. 

In th FAU game we stayed within ourselves to do what we do, without screwing it up.  That, in itself was refreshing.

[SisyphusMiner]

I didn?t watch the whole game because I got frustrated.  But This time it was with the players and not the play calling

I don?t really understand how we can lose the line of scrimmage the first half of games and then win it in the second half

[kyyote]

TOP

Defenses get tired being pounded on.  Not right at first.  But, after a while it takes a toll.  The FAU team was playing defense for 35+ minutes and the Miners only had to play defense for less than 25.  Converted to percentage the Miners were pounding on FAU's defense 58% of the game, while the Miners' defense was only on the field for 42% of the game.  I went back and looked at the first half.  The Miners had the ball for 17:24 and FAU had the Miners defense on the field for 12.36.  That's FAU playing an extra 5 minutes of being the poundee, and being worn down!  The score was 7 to 6 at the half for FAU.  Even though we had failed to complete the drives with touchdowns, the physical toll had been taken on FAU's defense.

In the first half the Miners had 162 yards of offense.  In the second half, the Miners had the ball for 18:07 and 230 yards of offense.  Plus 18 points in the second half and holding the FAU offense to 14 points in the half.  FAU averages 28.6 points per game.  Fourteen point three points per half.  But the FAU team usually has the ball for 29 minutes a game on offense. The math is so sweet here.  Notice that FAU averages almost exactly a point a minute of time of possession.  How many minutes did FAU have the ball on offense?  Twenty-four minutes.  We held them to a little below their point a minute, but we didn't allow them the other 5 minutes they usually have to add another 5 points to get their average either. 

Our defense held them to a bit better than their offense normally gets, but our offense kept them from having the time to do what they normally do.  The defense was good, but the ball control offense was the reason for the win.  Even though it sputtered.

[SisyphusMiner]

That makes sense.

[kyyote]

Looking at MTU, they score an average of 28 points per game possessing the ball for 27 minutes a game.  Again, it is an almost perfect match to the point per minute that FAU averages.  UTEP averages 22.4 ppg.  It takes us 32 minutes a game to do it.  If MTU has the ball for 20 minutes they have 20 points and we average 0.7 points per minute for the other 40 minutes  we score 28 points.  If they have the ball 25 minutes and score 25 points we have the ball for 35 and score 24.5.  Soooo, we have to have the ball for 37 minutes and keep them to under 24 minutes of TOP.   Two or three minutes of TOP can be the difference between a W and an L.

TOP

UNT 31.25  UTEP 28.35
OU  21.37   UTEP  38.33
NMSU 31.42  UTEP  28.18
UNM  36:33   UTEP  23:27
BSU  19:25  UTEP 40:35
Char  26.20  UTEP 33:40
LA T  25:28  UTEP  34:32

Early on, the numbers aren't established and unreliable.  As the season has worn on the numbers become more accurate.  At .7 points per minute the 28 minutes against UNT generate 19.6 points and we scored 13.  First game.  OU scored in short order when they had the ball and stiffled us.  It was still OU.  NMSU was the opposite of OU.  OU was too good to use the TOP measure and NMSU is too bad.  Boise allowed us to hold the ball.  Point 7 times 40 equals 28 and we scored 27.  Almost perfect match.  Against Charlotte we exceeded our scoring average of .7 points per minute of TOP.  Charlotte is a loose skank and she will let you score for a shiney quarter.   The LA Tech game was skewed by the 21 points in less than 5 minutes head start we gave them.

Middle Tennessee is ranked 108 in scoring defense.  They give up 31.5 ppg.  We give up 27.9.  Notice the match between MTU's point per minute, TOP of 27 minutes per game and what we are allowing per game.  The spread says they will score 27 and we will score 28.  For us to score 28 points averaging .7 pp minute we have to have the ball for 40 minutes.  They average giving the other team 33 minutes a game to score 31.5 ppg.  WE need 40 minutes to get 28.  It comes down to a couple of minutes of TOP. 

[Chanson]

Nice breakdown, KY.

[SisyphusMiner]

That's a really interesting way to analyze a game, and you may be onto something.  My guess is that if two teams are not too widely varying in overall ranking this may be a great way to handicap.

[MinerInWisconsin]

The fact that UTEP's defense held FAU to 14 points needs to be considered. They scored 7 on a pick 6 and that should not be counted against the D.

[kyyote]

MIW, I think there are things that skew the averages like I mentioned about the 21 points we spotted Tech, but somewhere along the line those things have less and less affect on the averages.  Plus, if the Head Coach decides to completely change everything around...?

A mathematically inclined person might be able to isolate the outliers and really get some reliable data.  I am just amazed at how you can see how close the numbers can get you, even with the crazy stuff. 

It seems to me that a stat that should be figured out and charted is points per minute.  And maybe a Points per Minute to Time of Possession Ratio.  For instance, the MTU 27 minutes of top and they average 28 ppg gives them a 1.04 ppm and if it was shown as ppm/30 minutes their ratio would be 31.2.  Now, UTEP.  UTEP averages 32 minutes top and  22.4 ppg. which gives us that 0.7 ppm and a ratio of 21.  Now let's take Alabama.  They average 43.1 ppg.  TOP is exactly 30 minutes so the ppm is 1.44 and their Ratio would be 43.1 to MTU's 31.2, and UTEP's 21. 

[kyyote]

That all caused me to decide to look at a Defensive PPM and Ratio.  Alabama plays defense 30 minutes per game, so it is easy to look up and find that they allow 16.62 ppg.  Dividing that by 30 minutes we get 0.554 points per minute and the 16.62, because it is already 30 minutes is a 16.62 per 30 minute ratio.  Now UTEP.  UTEP allows 27.88 points per game but the defense is on the field for 28 minutes, on average.  For 30 minutes, that comes out to 29.9. 

Wow!  That gives us a scoring to scoring defense ratio!  Alabama has a 43.1/16.6 or 2.60/1 Score Ratio.  UTEP has a 21 pp 30 min gm/29.9 pp 30 min gm or 21/29.9 or a 0.70 Score Ratio.  Ours 0.70.  Bama's 2.60

Finally, MTU's.  Theirs 31.2/28.7 or 1.09

[SisyphusMiner]

Hardison is #111 ranked QB on QB rating.

Net punting #51
Punt returns #64

This is a huge improvement over last year.  Punt returns could be better if we learned how to slow down the opponent on their way down the field.  The yards we've gotten have been 100% returner effort and 0% team effort.   But still, credit where credit is due.  Special teams has improved and not cost us a game.