Let's Talk Some Football

[kyyote]

This upcoming season has so very much riding on it and it is time we started talking about it.  C-USA is shedding its skin once again and teams have their last chance to make a statement about those teams who are leaving and the teams that are staying have a chance to make rightful type claims and such.  This season closes one chapter and begins another, and since we are the main character in the upcoming chapter it is worth setting things up a little.

As always, there is the non-conference schedule and the conference schedule.  The non-conference tells us how we are in the overall landscape, and conference games tell us how we stand up in our neighborhood.  Some neighbors have moved out and some are already getting ready to move while others are making plans to move into our neighborhood.

No need to look too far into the future, but the upcoming season is getting close to being close.  So, let's start with our out of conference schedule.  It really is a nearly perfect non-conference schedule in that it ranges from the top of the power chain to a perennial national doormat.  In between is a Mid-Major legendary giant killer and a mid-major tomato can.  Before we start our non-conference schedule we start the season with a game against one of our conference mates who believes they are making a move up.  North Texas went 6-6 during last season's regular games and  lost to Toledo in their bowl game.  This is the perfect tone setting game for both teams.  But they have to play the game in the Sun Bowl and UTEP will have a serious home field advantage from a crowd left hungry for more of the winning they saw last season and looking to give the Mean Green a boot in the ass on their way out of the conference as a going away gift.  If the Miners win this one it sets the table for a trip to Norman.  For once in my life maybe, this is a can't really lose situation and a win would be historic.  The thing is, I have a feeling that thinking the Miners might get a win won't seem quite as ridiculous as it normally would.  A week later NMSU coms into the Sun Bowl to take the aftermath of the game with OU.  The Miners are going to be angry and wounded or insanely higher than a sherpa at the top of Mt. Everest on acid.  That is a warmup for the Lobos in the land of the baby-biters.  The Miners will be a growing monster by then looking for a kill and raw meat.  The wolves have fangs.  The Miners have guns and explosives.  The Miners beast gains strength and gets larger. And somehow, someway, like it was scripted or something, the next game brings Boise State to El Paso.  Seriously, they won't believe it.   I know, I know.  They are used to bigger crowds and those crowds are very enthusiastic.  For this game, they won't have ever seen anything like it.  People have seen lots of Thanksgiving dinners too, but they haven't ever seen 50 thousand starving individuals eating Thanksgiving dinner.  It is different.  Like shake you to the marrow of your bones different.

So that is how we start this very meaningful season.  The rest of the country has a chance to see it building.  Without my usual orange shaded view of the world, it isn't crazy to imagine a team with a four and one record and the one loss to a championship contender without being embarrassed.  Including a win over the mid-major legendary Boise State giant killers.  The next six games are conference games against teams with a combined record of 25 and 48 last season before finishing the regular season against a UTSA team that went 12-2 last year.

I always want to pick my Miners to win every game.  But, the Miners will teach you that that just isn't reality.  So, I am not going to pick them to go undefeated.  They might!  But probably not.  Here's the thing, though. It is perfectly reasonable to believe that the Miners could beat a BSU team in El Paso and be 4 and 1.  The next six games are against Charlotte(5-7), LA Tech(3-9), FAU(5-7), MTU (7-6), Rice (4-8), FIY (1-11) and it isn't ridiculous to think we could easily win five of the six, leaving us 9 and 2 going into our last game against UTSA.  There may be some who think I am being ridiculous but if you think so, add two or three losses. 

A 10-2 regular season, and even an 8 and 4 season in the last season against teams leaving would put us in the position to claim a leadership position in a solid new conference, setting a completely new tone.  It would feel good to be the king.

[Minermojo]

I want the Miners to win their games against those teams who absconded to, in their minds, better conferences. I want them to send them home with a loss.

If the coach doesn't pull a North Texas screw up like he did last year we might win against them this year. Sometimes coach has a yellow streak and doesn't want to chance anything drastic. That TD by NT before the half really put a damper in their game. He played it horribly and it bit him in the S.

If the Miners play to their potential you're right Ky, they can have a nine win season. I'm hoping this year our QB has matured a bit. Last year he made some pretty stupid mistakes that cost us, such as throwing into double coverage with so-so receivers. The only one who did a great job, (Cowing) has left us to a cartel team. It Ps'es me off but who can blame him. I can't see why those players don't believe that the nfl won't come courting just because they're in a Miner team. If you're really good, like Aaron Jones is, any nfl team will be begging you to play on their team. If not then you can't blame the school for not getting offers. They're not too bright for thinking just because you play in a cartel school that things will change for them. If you suck it doesn't matter where you're at.

The only good thing about getting old and seeing how fast time flies is that before you know it it's football season again.

GO MINERS!

[kyyote]

Mojo, I hate to say that I hold a grudge, so let's just say I have a long memory and want to see those who have insulted or harmed me to pay for it. I have said before that I have a special view of teams who formed the mwc.  So, beating the Lobos always holds that special feel even beyond the natural Rio Grande  rivalry.  Most of the rest of them don't cross paths with us too often.  Then came the C-USA teams that dumped us.  We don't often get our chances with them, either.  Now we have a whole new group of C-USA traitors and we have direct shots at a few this upcoming season.   So, we have a great chance for some of that revenge type games to give us a real good feeling and maybe just maybe have the team to do it.  But, that looking forward is looking back.  I want to look forward.  Right now, no one knows just where the new C-USA will stand in the rankings of mid-majors.  You would think that the remnants would be the weakest teams that were left behind as has been the case many times.  But that isn't the case this time.  MTU and Western Kentucky have become equal to or better than other teams in their division at the top.  LA Tech has been down but has also been the perennial champions.  UTEP had a good enough year to have gone bowling and look to be headed for an even better year.  So the remaining core group is probably equal to or greater than any combination of four teams that left to another conference.  I could argue that the four remaining teams starts the conference at about where it was before, only without some of what might be called the deadwood.  Now we ask if the incoming teams are as good as or better than the teams that left.  Not the top teams, as the four remaining are arguably equal to, but the ones that were the other teams, the teams I refer to deadwood above and I think the answer will prove to be yes, the newcomers are even better.

[Chanson]

Just win the games they should & give us an upset. That would make my day. That formula is a bowl winning team.

[kyyote]

I wanted to see if the new schools are going to schedule for a strong conference or go easy as they join the conference.  The change doesn't happen this year, but I think it can give us an idea of where we are headed, strength-wise as a conference.  The first team I looked at was Liberty.   Liberty and NMSU both had strong schedules.  For comparison purposes our schedule includes cartel royalty OU and mid-major legend Boise State.  One of them is a "money game" when teams of lower conferences come in to play and pick up a check.  But for cartel teams these are normal games.  Our goal is to be a Boise State type of team that plays cartel teams as normal games with a chance to get big wins.  So, a game against Boise is the perfect step up for us to have a chance at a feather and a win over a giant killer.  Liberty has Southern Miss and UAB to start.  Two conference USA traitors.  Perfect way to set the tone for Liberty and send a message about where they intend to stand in the new C-USA.  Then they play a cartel team in Wake Forest.  Not just for the money.  Then they play Akron and get a shot at sending ODU out with a kick in the pants.  They go on to play national power BYU and then Arkansas. They also play VA Tech and finish with future conference mate, NMSU.  Liberty is up to speed and already looking to pass us in C-USA by.  This is a quick stop for them.  UTEP and the rest of the conference should match their ambition and raise the entire conference level.  Liberty will come into the conference claiming the top spot.
NMSU, plays everyone for money and so their upcoming schedule is really much harder to use as a measure, but figure that after years of playing all of those money games playing the leftovers and newbies of C-USA should be a challenge they feel ready for.  For this upcoming season NMSU has Minnesota, Wisconsin, Mizzou, and Liberty and their other games are tough, too.  NMSU will come in feeling strong enough for Conference-USA.  In a very different way, NMSU is also looking to move up in the future and that come from a pure survival present. 
I think looking ahead that those two won't be the weak teams of the conference.  Or let me put it this way.  I think they won't be the reason if the conference is a weakened conference.  Actually, having an actual conference affiliation may help the Aggies recruiting-wise and make it easier to be a better team.
Jacksonville State will be stepping up to tackle an always tough Tulsa team.  Rich Rodriguez has been building his team for the step up in a strategic way.  I think that they will hold up their end and look to keep the bar high-at their speed, on their terms.
Sam Houston State plays Texas A&M.  But they may very well win all of the rest of their games and play for a National Championship.  That's how they roll.  The question for them isn't about ambition or expectations.  It is whether they can keep rolling their way at a bit higher level.  High enough to beat Texas, Houston, or A&M?  No, but high enough to beat UTEP, NMSU, and LA Tech?  Well, if not today, how about in the near future.  The answer is yes.  Most likely.  Playing at this level will attract next level players from nearby Houston to recruit from.  Sam will be fine.  Like lieb said, it will be about facilities limiting them.  They can adjust.

Western Kentucky is already looking to move and up would be even better.  But they and Middle Tennessee might just determine that this conference minus the "deadwood" might just be able to be the move up.  You don't really have to worry about these two.  They are ambitious.

Looking at it overall, almost all of the teams are ambitious and looking to move up.  C-USA is literally a move up for some, and almost all of the new conference teams want to either move to a higher level conference or want Conference USA to move up in stature.  I hate to say that of the teams that will be in the new conference, UTEP and LA Tech may be the least ambitious of them all.  UTEP is thrilled to just not be the butt of jokes and LA Tech seems to have just lost their way without Holtz at the helm.  I said UTEP may be the least ambitious, but I don't mean that in a bad way.  We are unique.  We are UTEP.  Ambition for us is measured on a different scale.  Our ambition to win more than two games I would bet is perhaps stronger that any other team in the country.  You see, it is different.  Being involved in normal ambition, if it could be done realistically, would be embraced enthusiastically, of course.

So, this year we need to root for our loyal conference mates, wish for the best possible bad outcomes for the traitors, and keep an eye on our future teammates and root for them.  Of course, most of all, root for the Miners.  Go, Miners!

[SisyphusMiner]

I don't know that any of our conference games would be a statement game.  UNT was better than their record, and starting off with a W there would be great.

Obviously we have to beat NMSU, andI think UNM is a must win.  So, excluding OU, the only statement win would be Boise.  They beat us like a rented mule last year and I'd dearly like to return the favor.  That game, UTSA, and UAB were humiliating.  And I think UTSA and UAB were winnable.

I think UTSA had a dream season last year and not sure they can duplicate. 

So yeah, even a 1 loss season is possible.  But my money's on something more like 5-6 losses unless I see QB and/or WR/TE really make a statement

As we've discussed forever, the D could be really really good.  If they have upgraded the secondary as it appears they have, it will let the D line really tee off on the QB.  And yet what killed us in those games was the run.  Shore up those things and it could be real special.

The O and special teams are just such a huge question mark for me.  The O was just good enough to not lose a lot of games, and as I've ranted multiple times the special teams were beyond awful.  I saw a headline about coaching changes a couple days ago and was really hopeful it was about special teams, but alas.

[Chanson]

Teams that are smaller schools that have heavy schedules usually don't last the year. Example is NMSU. These guys are going to be tired & injured by the time Conference play starts up.

[kyyote]

I beg to differ with you on statement games.  We start the year with one-UNT.  A win says we are on the right track, we have a great win to set the tone for the season, but the big one is that UNT thinks they are too good for us and their new conference is better than ours and beating them would make a statement alright.  One word statement.  Bullshit!  And that is just the first game.  Then a win at Charlotte would state that the team can travel east and still win with the bonus of stating to Char that she thinks she is better than us is hard to do when we beat you like a rented mule.  Call it my Southwest bias.  We go to Ruston and because they are future conference mates i state, "Get in line somewhere behind us and make sure to kick the traitors' asses along the way."  Florida Atlantic gets the Charlotte treatment with the added bonus of beating a Florida team just for that-they're a Florida team and we are Texans.  Remember that these teams left because they think they are too good for the teams that didn't.  Statement to FAU would be something along the lines of, "You are delusional, but you can blame it on covid, so there's that."  After the win at MTU, I would state that it was a good game and to go kick traitorous asses.  Rice Owls.  Beat them and then show them the comparative cost of tuition to do it explaining how truly genius works.  Getting more from less.  Perhaps a study topic for Rice business students?  After beating FIU i would state that they need to pick it up, and kick traitor ass.  Final game of the season is UTSA.  I'm not even going to take the pleasure away from all of you to think of the statement it would be for you.  They are all statement games for my money.  That doesn't even mention the statement it would make to all of them as a whole and for us, the remaining teams as a whole.

NMSU will be beat up making money this year, that true.  But next year they won't have to play that kind of schedule and as the season progresses the experience of the games this year against big10 teams will carry them mentally against cusa teams.  Liberty has 48k enrollment so that won't be a factor.  Sam has 20 thousand.  And Houston.  UTEP has 23k.  JSU has 8k.  Tulsa has 4700 students and are able to play tough all damned year.

[Chanson]

On NMSU, I was talking about this year. They are going to struggle.
I am stoked NMSU will be in same conference. Just need UTEP & NMSU to get into MW with UNM. That proximity brings back great rivalries.