Author Topic: Serious Question. How Many Wins?  (Read 361 times)

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kyyote

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Serious Question. How Many Wins?
« on: October 19, 2021, 04:18:03 PM »
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  • In the Dave Campbell article below it talks like the Miners could win two more games. What is kind of funny is that it started the article saying that no one would have predicted that the Miners would be 6 and 1.  They had no idea and now they know the Miners can win two more, maybe?  My question is why two, why not win out?  Seriously, and I know that some of you will just think that the old guy has flat out lost it, but why not?  I'm not saying that they will, but what are others seeing that I'm not that makes them think the Miners are going to lose three to five of their last five games?  Now, the Miners are 6-1 and have won impressively some of their games.  It could be that others believe that the Miners are going to play much tougher teams and others perhaps believe that the competition in previous games has been weaker than what is ahead.  That is my thinking and I admit that I may have missed something.  I'm just wondering how they decided the Miners were going to lose games based on the first seven games.

    Team Records
    6-1*(5-1)
    10-31

    Next 5
    18-14

    *I pulled BC.

    I'm not crazy.  I know that UTSA and UAB are in the remaining games.

    Total Offense
    33   UTSA   446.3
    41   Fla. Atlantic    438.3
    47   FIU     433.8
    56   North Texas    415.0
    76   UTEP    387.3
    121   Rice    309.7

    Total Defense
    15   UTEP    297.4
    30   UAB    320.0
    33   UTSA    323.9
    62   Fla. Atlantic     376.2
    103   North Texas    433.5
    107   Rice       438.0

    Time of Possession
    8   UTEP  33
    13   UAB   32
    23   Rice    31
    30   UTSA   31
    71   North Texas   29
    98   Fla. Atlantic  28
    128   FIU   26

    Scoring Off
    13   UTSA  38.6
    61   Fla. Atlantic  29.3
    72   FIU  27.8
    86   UAB  26.1
    93   UTEP  24.9
    106   North Texas  22.5
    126   Rice  16

    Scoring Def
    21   UAB  19
    22   UTSA  19.14
    25     UTEP  19.29
    54     Fla. Atlantic  23
    115   North Texas  35
    122   FIU     36.83
    126   Rice     39.67

    There are some numbers for you to peruse.  I don't see any numbers that just stick out to me as red flags that indicate that winning or losing any of the remaining games is pretty mush guaranteed.  One game at a time.  But each one is certainly within the realm of possibility.  I said it in a previous post, and I will say it again.  The Miners are built with a certain mindset.  The Miners really do want to be the bigger bully.  A huge part of any fight, all the way to wars, is psychological.  Normally, when the Miners travel to Florida they were looking for a nice spot to take a nap before the game-during the game.  When the Miners went into the locker room at the half of the LA Tech game they were feeling like King Kong.  Then King Kong came out for the second half!  The Miners are fired up, pumped up, and spoiling for a fight.  I wish they didn't have to wait this week.  But, they will be ready when they travel this time.  They want some.  It feels so good! 

    Before the Tech game we were averaging holding opponents(not playing on blue turf) to an average of 11 points below what the odds makers predicted.  The Miners beat Tech by 16 points.  But the thing is that Tech had opened as a 7.5 point favorites and predicting they would score 32 or 33.  That was almost exactly what they were averaging per game.  The odds makers were figuring we would score our 25 points that we were averaging.  On this game, we held Tech to 30 points less than the odds makers thought we would.

    Look at FAU and they average 29 points a game, and we still average 25.  Take the eleven points away from FAU and they score just 18.  Look at our scoring defense.  We give up an average of 19 points per game.  That gives you points to give them for travel east and FAU home field if you want.  Miners win 24 20.  Take the under, again.



    « Last Edit: October 19, 2021, 08:57:40 PM by kyyote »

    SisyphusMiner

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    Re: Serious Question. How Many Wins?
    « Reply #1 on: October 19, 2021, 06:38:47 PM »
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  • I think I mentioned in a different thread that I think every game is winnable.  I think on paper UTSA looks better.  UAB and FAU about even.  So the team that's probably better than us is a home game and the two teams about the same as us are road games.  I think the "smart money" is on losing those 3 games.  But at this point nothing would surprise me.  If the D that played at La Tech is the same D that comes out for these games, who knows?

    Minermojo

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    Re: Serious Question. How Many Wins?
    « Reply #2 on: October 19, 2021, 07:13:31 PM »
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  • The biggest asset that I see for the Miners is that they have seen that they can win even if they're not supposed to. Look at the la tech game, we were 7.5 point dogs to them and it seemed that the defense (not so much the offense) took it personal. They were intent on hitting the dogs in the mouth and by golly they sure did. La Tech didn't know what hit them.

    If the Miners take that attitude and the offense improves (and with better play calling) then there's no reason why we can't get more than 8 wins. Right now Ootsa is riding on a cloud and probably thinking that we will be a pushover. Even though our record is lousy east of the Pecos River hopefully the Miners lose that stigma and hand the F_U a loss at their place.

    One thing has to happen and we already know that the Miners can do it as they've been doing it ever since the third game. They are playing with confidence, with pride, with tenacity, with smash mouth defense and they need to keep doing that. We will see just how good the Miners are in two weeks and dagnabbit it's gonna be a long two weeks. I can't wait for the next edition of MINER BALL!


    SisyphusMiner

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    Re: Serious Question. How Many Wins?
    « Reply #3 on: October 19, 2021, 07:17:58 PM »
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  • First time in a long time to feel excited about an upcoming game against a good opponent instead of resigned to a butt kicking

    kyyote

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    Re: Serious Question. How Many Wins?
    « Reply #4 on: October 19, 2021, 07:42:00 PM »
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  • I have done the numbers again, with Boise included.  The Miners are after 6 games of division one games bet on averaging scoring 2.68 points per game less than the oddsmakers think they will and hold opponents an average of 11 points less that they were predicted to score.

    Applied to FAU, I did the numbers on them and they are averaging .5 points per game more than oddsmakers have predicted and .25 points per game more given up than oddsmakers have predicted.  In three of the four games averaged they would have underperformed and average of 8 points but the blew away FIU 27 points more than anticipated and it brought the average to almost even.

    I predict the oddsmakers will make FAU a 6-8 point favorite and the over/under of 53.5  The Miners will score 24 and the Owls will be held to 20.
    « Last Edit: October 19, 2021, 08:58:33 PM by kyyote »